Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.311657 1.492070 1.685153 1.906809 2.153866 2.420392 2.729302
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.051063 1.290434 1.563745 1.897589 2.292970 2.744831 3.298794
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.888724 1.171795 1.514975 1.958574 2.513369 3.180613 4.039725
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.739445 1.046543 1.441479 1.980796 2.691382 3.588135 4.796715
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.650494 0.985522 1.441286 2.096618 3.002775 4.197822 5.876374
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.531672 0.865063 1.345845 2.074646 3.132778 4.590953 6.724408
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.445802 0.778054 1.285207 2.094006 3.323891 5.090021 7.773743
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.369461 0.692249 1.213827 2.088445 3.479880 5.559058 8.834928
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.323550 0.648064 1.200992 2.171975 3.781439 6.273942 10.329742
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.280791 0.601372 1.177165 2.235182 4.060215 6.985389 11.893874
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.239930 0.550019 1.137297 2.266133 4.291108 7.647179 13.448460
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.206179 0.505561 1.102814 2.302026 4.535532 8.356699 15.149398
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.164998 0.437659 1.015259 2.234189 4.602593 8.800926 16.499208
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.131082 0.376972 0.930648 2.158913 4.647742 9.215918 17.849151
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.110146 0.341571 0.892840 2.172622 4.865646 9.964494 19.861526
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.090552 0.303821 0.842233 2.151462 5.013438 10.603043 21.744288
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.079999 0.287772 0.839646 2.236444 5.391002 11.716488 24.609573
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.064427 0.251771 0.779999 2.180627 5.464662 12.250671 26.437501
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.053652 0.226859 0.743416 2.173562 5.644320 13.015301 28.782823
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.044037 0.202070 0.701262 2.145121 5.772265 13.688083 31.009644
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.038798 0.191014 0.695920 2.211040 6.128344 14.872318 34.366704
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.033777 0.178782 0.684285 2.258441 6.447049 16.008055 37.720524
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.028809 0.164571 0.662984 2.275440 6.693795 17.010771 40.880217